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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD AT 13.4N 107.6W AT 23/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT
08 KT. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED TO 997 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED NOW 55 KT AND GUSTS TO 65 KT. BUD IS
LOOKING MORE ORGANIZED ON VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF BUD...AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF BUD.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM
09N TO 11N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. MINIMAL SHEARING HAS ALLOWED
THE STORM TO INTENSIFY SINCE LATE YESTERDAY...AND BUD IS
EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 24/00Z...AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS IT DRIFTS N.
BEYOND THAT...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN MORE TO THE
NE BUT WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SEE
LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WTPZ22/TCMEP2 KNHC FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM BUD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 12N98W...THEN RESUMES FROM
12N110W TO 06N121W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N121 TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 36N145W. FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRES...MAINLY N OF 12N W OF 130W AND N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W AND
130W. A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN RELATED TO A REX BLOCK
FEATURE IN THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT NW AND NOT
CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN THE MEAN TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SURFACE WIND PATTERN W OF 115W. N SWELL WILL PUSH DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH 8 TO 12 FT REACHING AS FAR S AS 25N W OF
130W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED W OF 115W AS WELL DUE TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. FURTHER
EAST...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA...DUE IN PART TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE BUT ALSO TO
WEAK SW CONVERGENCE. ALTIMETER DATA FROM 14 UTC SHOWED SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FT E OF 115 OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE AREAS AROUND BUD.

WINDS MAY REACH TO 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...BETWEEN A STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC.

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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