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AXPZ20 KNHC 211537
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 111.2W OR ABOUT 110 MILES SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT AT 1500 UTC SEP 21. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. POLO IS MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 07 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH MON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ARE AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. STRONG NE WIND SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE CENTER TO THE E OF A CLUSTER MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W OF CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE GENERATION OF LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N83W TO 12N95W TO 6N109 TO 11N131W. ITCZ FROM 11N131W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 83W-86W AND WITHIN 240 NM S AND 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 93W-100W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N107W SW TO 18N128W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 13N W OF 120W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 26N136W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO 15N125W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA N OF 27N THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA MON THEN DISSIPATE TUE.

$$ DGS

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