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AXPZ20 KNHC 290951
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT CONDITIONS BY SUNSET TODAY...AND THEN PULSE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN. EXPECTING ONLY 15-20 KT FLOW ON SUN AFTERNOON...THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20- 25 KT AGAIN EARLY SUN NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT DURING THE PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON MON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE BY MON EVENING. THIS SECOND GALE EVENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BEST GUESS IS THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL CEASE LATE THU MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME THE EXTENT OF NORTHERLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-110W WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09N76W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO 08N100W TO 11N122W THEN TURNS WSW TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N100W TO 09N107W...WITHIN 90 NM OF 09.5N119W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N122W TO 10N130W TO 09N133W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 KT NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT ENE NOCTURNAL PULSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTANT NE SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH N SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS HAVE BEEN STALLING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY NW SWELL THAT MIXES WITH E SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW WATERS ON SUN ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AND SEAS 8-12 FT. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 19 KT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON MON. THESE LARGE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS THEY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...AND ONLY EXPECT 4- 6 FT COMBINED SEAS TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE WED.

$$ NELSON

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