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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 06N77W TO 07N90W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 05N140W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.


...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W... AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 22N120W WILL SHIFT E TODAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION W OF 120W. AN ASSOCIATED 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N148W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A 06 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FROM THE ITCZ TO GENERALLY 20N. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF 10N EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 138W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ OVER THE PASS COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF LINGERING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS GENERATE BY THE TRADE WINDS. ELSEWHERE LINGER NW SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

THROUGH LATE FRI...A WEAK MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD N OF THE AREA INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST THROUGH LATE FRI. A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS...REINFORCING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD EASTWARD TO 115W BY LATE FRI. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE WAVE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT...REACHING AS FAR AS W OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 15N140W BY LATE FRI.

E OF 110W...AN AREA OF 7 TO 8 FT THAT IS THE REMNANT OF SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL FROM AN EARLIER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PULSE...MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL...PERSISTS NEAR 11N110W. THIS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NW AT 10-15 KT LATE THU...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15- 20 KT BY EARLY FRI...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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