AXPZ20 KNHC 270933
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 27 2016
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N91W to 11N105W to 07N120W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N120W to 06N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 79W and 87W...from 05N to 08N between 90W and 95W...and from 04N to 11N between 100W and 104W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 112W and 118W and from 04N to 09N between 127W and 132W.
...DISCUSSION... High pressure at 1033 mb centered near 39N137W...north of the area...extends a ridge axis southeastward to 17N110W. This high pressure area influences most of the area N of 13N W of 110W. Latest scatterometer data indicates fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ to 22N generally W of 117W.
Global models are suggesting an area of broad and weak low pressure across the central waters in the vicinity of 10N119W. As stated above...the latest scatterometer data indicates weak cyclonic flow embedded along the monsoon trough in this area. By Saturday afternoon further development will result in an estimated 1009 mb low near 11N122W with a slight strengthening of the pressure gradient within the NW quadrant of the low. NE winds will reach fresh to strong breeze conditions as seas respond building to 9 ft by late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Elsewhere...Near gale to gale force N-NW winds along the California coast are expected to produce an area of N swell that will extend south of 32N Friday night and affect the north- central waters N of 28N between 122W and 129W through Saturday night. Otherwise...rather benign marine conditions are expected to prevail across the remainder of the forecast area through Saturday night.