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AXPZ20 KNHC 072037
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N138.5W...OR ABOUT 1050 NM ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AT 1005 MB IS MOVING TO THE WNW AT 14 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO BETWEEN 180 NM AND 420 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 08N TO 15N IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE CONVECTION SECTION BELOW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N100W TO 05N118W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 90W...FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W WHERE LEFTOVER ENERGY LIKELY RESULTING FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.


...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N131W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SE TO NEAR 17N108W. OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE... WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ALONG WITH SEAS THAT ARE LESS THAN 8 FT.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SWEEPING TO THE N-NE FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON... GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF AREA IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BY EARLY THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THU. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8-9 FT BY SUNRISE THU AS A RESULT OF THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE GULF TOWARD THE SW-W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING AS SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DEEPENS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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