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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301005
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N89W TO 04N94W...CONTINUING AS ITCZ FROM 04N94W TO 06N117W TO 05N124W BEYOND 06N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 117W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 138W/139W FROM 10N TO 15N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 86W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO 27N120W...TO 23N123W...TO 21N128W...TO 16N36W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N137W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 14N94W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 14N111W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH 22N107W...BEYOND 30N105W IN NORTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 120W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 95W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N135W...TO 23N130W TO 18N118W TO 13N104W.

EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AREA OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LONGER AND MORE NARROW AT THE 06-HOUR FORECAST TIME...MEANING THIS MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY...STILL FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. ONE PULSE OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL SEEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN DISAPPEAR AFTER THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME.

8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN SWELL WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD...FROM 24N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SEA HEIGHTS FROM SWELL EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.




.30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N86W TO 10N88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.





GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ACTIVE TOMORROW FROM SUNRISE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FEET. EXPECT A BURST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NE WINDS AT 48 HOURS...MEANING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FEET.

$$ MT

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