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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240306
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N82W TO 08N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N111W 1007 MB TO 10N121W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N121W TO 10N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N AND 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 123W AS WELL AS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 131W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 18N107W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 125W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N111W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W-126W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES OOZES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM 28.5N TO 30N EARLY TUE. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS LATE TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE TONIGHT INTO TUE.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N111W WESTWARD TO 131W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND 124W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS AREA TO 09N115W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION...AS IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 10N111W. CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO TO THE BORDER WITH CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY N OF 28N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL EXPAND S AND PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY TUE. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER.

$$ SCHAUER

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