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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280308
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N104W TO 05N114W TO 07.5N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 390 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 36N154W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE SE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THROUGH MON EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TO 20 KT OR LESS...BY SUN AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT. COOL DENSE AIR WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP FOR WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO INCREASE TO 25 KT BY 06 UTC MON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE BRIEFLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY MON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$ AL

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