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AXPZ20 KNHC 230901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0901 UTC Mon Oct 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: High pressure building across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front has helped tighten the pressure gradient over the area. In response to this tighter pressure gradient, northerly flow funneling through the Chivela pass is reaching near gale force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will further increase to gale force by early this morning as the cold front moves through the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to further increase to storm force Tuesday night, with seas building to near 22 ft by midweek. The storm force winds should diminish Wednesday evening, with gale force winds then persisting into early Thursday morning. High pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will shift northeast. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the area as well as veer winds over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. In response to the weakened pressure gradient, winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will further diminish to fresh to strong Thursday, then to 20 kt or less by Friday.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N110W to 08N117W. The ITCZ extends from 08N117W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W and 128W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 133W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section above for information on a developing storm event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Seas in the Baja California offshore waters continue in the 7 to 10 ft range. Seas will continue to gradually subside to less than 8 ft off Baja California Sur and within 200 nm of the coast of Baja California Norte through late today. Gentle breezes associated with a weak pressure pattern along with slight to moderate seas will prevail by late week.

High pressure over the Great Basin region of the western United States is maintaining fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of California. These winds are expected to continue through Tuesday, before diminishing as the area of high pressure shifts eastward and the pressure gradient weakens. Winds will be the strongest today, with seas peaking near 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the forecast area the next several days, increasing to moderate to fresh S of the monsoon trough by Monday afternoon, and becoming strong S of western Panama by Tuesday. NW swell originating from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of next week. Broad low pressure may develop along the monsoon trough by the end of the week, drifting to the NW.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large NW swell continues to subside over the area, with peak seas near 10 ft. Seas will continue to subside, to less than 8 ft, by mid week with tranquil marine conditions expected by the end of the week.

$$ AL

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