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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N101W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 99W-101W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 100-120W AND PROVIDING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THIS SURFACE LOW TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...WITH A HIGH POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO LOW PRES 14N101W 1008 MB TO 8N110W TO 6N120W. ITCZ FROM 6N120W TO 6N133W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 79W-84W AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 86W-98W.


...DISCUSSION...

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 24N140W. A LARGE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF 125W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS A COUPLE OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 9N136W AND ANOTHER NEAR 7N129W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF 115W.

THE REMNANTS OF POLO IS A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 22N115W. WINDS ARE LIGHT AROUND THE LOW. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N129W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO 13N120W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE WED AND EXTEND FROM 32N129W TO 26N140W AND FROM 32N122W TO 25N140W THU. LARGE SWELLS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$ DGS

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