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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 100W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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