Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080335
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CENTRAL GULF SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 12.5N97W. WINDS THERE AREA HOLDING STEADY EARLY TONIGHT AT 30-45 KT AND SEAS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 20 FT. EXPECT THE STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL GALES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12-13 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO AROUND 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT MODERATE TO STRONG GALES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LARGE PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ADJACENT NICARAGUAN AND COSTA RICAN OFFSHORE WATERS TO 89W...WITH MAX WINDS THIS EVENING NEAR 30 KT. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AND ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 AND POSSIBLY 40 KT. BRIEF GALES ARE ALSO SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WILL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N88W TO 04N107W TO 06N121W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 123W.


...DISCUSSION... A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W TONIGHT...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT BETWEEN 25N-26N. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO PERSIST IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH TUE.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 15-16N...AND W OF 115W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W MON MORNING WITH NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA ALREADY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN WEAKENS TUEAND FINALLY DISSIPATES ALONG ALONG 132W.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W ON MON. AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

$$ STRIPLING

Home