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AXPZ20 KNHC 122157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS... WITH SEAS TO 17 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON MORNING. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW...MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM STRONG WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MERGING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 04.5N BETWEEN 90-101W TONIGHT AND REACH ALONG 09N BETWEEN 96-102W ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

EPAC GALE WARNING....MODEL GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT AGREES ON A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...OR POSSIBLY 2 TROUGHS...DEVELOPING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ON SAT. USING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOLUTION OF A SINGLE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 08N132W TO 15N127W ON SAT AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N WITHIN 540 NM E OF TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 11-13 FT. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED N OF 26N BETWEEN 124-133W WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN LATE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING N OF 12N WITHIN 420 NM W OF A TROUGH FROM 10N128W TO 18N124W WITH SEAS BUILDING 10-15 FT. THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD END ON SUN MORNING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF PUERTO RICO AT 08N84W TO 05N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES W TO 05N110W...THEN NW TO 07N123W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N88W TO 05N110W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N114W TO 04N132W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 27N120W TO 19N106W. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 105- 120W INTO NEXT WEEK. COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN NW SWELL HAVE REACHED THE OPEN PAC WATERS N OF 28N. THESE LARGE SEAS WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA EARLY SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON MON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-106W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN MORNING...INCREASING TO FRESH ON SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND SPREADING N ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N ON SUN NIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON AFTERNOON.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...PATCHES OF STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 9 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. NE 20-30 KT SURGES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN MORNING AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 07N93W. EXPECT THE NE FLOW TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON SUN... THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN EACH NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF ABOUT 04N AND W OF ABOUT 87W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG ABOUT 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

$$ NELSON

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