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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310310
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N95W TO 05N105W TO 07N122W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 122W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S AND 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 132W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN 124W AND 132W.

DURING THE PERIOD FROM LATE FEBRUARY TO EARLY APRIL...THE MONSOONAL CIRCULATION OVER THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC IS NOT PRESENT...AND OCCASIONALLY BREAKS DOWN WITH CONVERGENCE NOTED ON EACH SIDE OF THE EQUATOR IN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS A DOUBLE ITCZ STRUCTURE. CURRENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED S OF THE EQUATOR FROM 06S85W TO 03S90W TO 01S100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04S TO 06S BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN ITCZ OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.


...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINLY N OF 17N W OF 120W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS FROM 14N TO 18N W OF 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8-9 FT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUE. STRONGER HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN DOMINATE THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TUE AND WED. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BY TUE EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W AND 127W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL TUE EVENING INTO WED. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 120W BY WED NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL ARE REACHING THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION AND WILL MIX WITH THE SOUTHERLY SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE TO BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT N OF LINE FROM 30N117W TO 24N125W TO 20N135W BY LATE TUE.

A STATIONARY TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP FROM 14N113W TO 09N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS... ESPECIALLY FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 116W.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GAP WIND REGIONS...MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA E OF 110W. LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO FADE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH SEAS GENERALLY 5-7 FT.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND FOR ABOUT 180 NM THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING...WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCING THE WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KT BY LATER TUE AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING...REACHING 20-25 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

$$ COBB

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