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AXPZ20 KNHC 020850
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N107W. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN DROPPED ON THE 02/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW OVER THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 106W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N109W TO 10N122W AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 102W-110W. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT YET ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION OR PERSISTENCE FOR THE LOW TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N83W TO 8N93W THEN RESUMES FROM THE 1006 MB LOW NEAR 16N107W TO 18N115W TO 12N126W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 11N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 3N AND N OF 6N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG ENTIRE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 90W-100W AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 98W-105W.


...DISCUSSION...

STRONG SW MONSOON FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM 100W AND 120W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE SEAS HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR LATER TODAY WITH SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 3N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 115W AND 130W AND CONTINUING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 7N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 105W AND 135W WED INTO THU.

$$ PAW

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