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AXPZ20 KNHC 212151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W TO 05N81W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N86W...THEN SW AGAIN TO 06N92W TO 07N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N109W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04-09N TO THE E OF 83W AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N110W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N110W TO 13N109W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N112W TO 16N103W.


...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N98W ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO BASE AT 15N122W. EVAPORATING UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE HAS MOVED S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N E OF 125W...AND WILL CONTINUE S ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 126-167W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N140W TO 10N117W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N114W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N101W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 34N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 17N105W. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 09-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB- TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119-125W THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL HAS SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 5-8 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON AND MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREAD SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT EARLY WED MORNING... THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU.

$$ NELSON

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