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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190235
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N102W TO 02N113W TO 05N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W.


...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT SHIP OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-6 FT.

W OF 120W...A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES FROM 08N-12N W OF 130W...FROM LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A SHARP UPPER TROUGH NW OF AREA AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 10N123W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 138W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND S OF A MODERATELY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. ALTIMETER DATA SHOW 8-9 FT SEAS FROM 10N-20N. FOLLOWING ECWAVE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MORE INDICATIVE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING 8 FT SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO MON...WHILE THE MWW3 MODEL DECAYS MOST OF THE SWELL TO LESS THAN 8 FT SUN.

$$ MUNDELL

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