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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 111W-112 FROM 08N TO 17N MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W...WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE PORTION OF THE TROF E OF 110W DRIFTS N TOWARD THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 06.5N80W TO 14N99W TO 09N125W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138.5W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 118W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAS MOVED THROUGH FRENCH POLYNESIA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 110W EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THIS SW SWELL S OF 05N AND W OF 115W BY TUE EVENING...AND REACH AS FAR AS 10N W OF 110W BY THU MORNING.

$$ STRIPLING

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