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AXPZ20 KNHC 242151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


....SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N132W MOVING W TO WNW AT 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES W OR WNW AT AROUND 10 KT. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 100W/101W N OF 09N MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 103W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 09N TO 20N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 15N.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N122W TO 11N124W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW WAS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14.5N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE S SEMICIRCLE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 08N100W TO 15N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N124W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N132W 1007 MB TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N W OF 130W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N132W TO 18N136W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY W OF 120W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS NEAR 35N108W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N118W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N105W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 11N112W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION E OF 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE .

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS SHOULD MAXIMIZE AT AROUND 8 FT WITH EACH PULSE.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AN THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N130W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.

$$ COBB

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