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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS NEAR 17.5N 106.5W 1004 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 02 MOVING N-NE OR 020 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDED WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND IN THE REMAINDER AREA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 113W. TO THE NORTH OF NORBERT...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 21N TO 25N. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 13Z SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT EXTEND AROUND 240 NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER WITHIN A LARGE SWATH OF 20-33 KT SW WINDS FOUND S OF NORBERT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N96W TO 14N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N112W TO 10N136W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N136W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 82W...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 88W AND WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 123W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST. AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N105W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD PANAMA WHERE IT MEETS UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONVERGED NEAR NORBERT AND SW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN NORBERT AND 120W SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN ACTIVE AREA FOR CONVECTION.

TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AS BOTH THE REMNANTS OF MARIE JUST NW OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 10N133W DISRUPTING THE DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA S OF 01N BETWEEN 110W AND 132W THIS MORNING. THE SWELL SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING AS FAR AS 07N IN CENTRAL WATERS BY WED MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY THU.

$$ SCHAUER

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