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AXPZ20 KNHC 052111
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC IS HELPING FUNNEL WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL VEER SAT WHICH WILL DECREASE FUNNELING OF WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BY SAT NIGHT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 07N118W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N118W TO04N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE OF 1012 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N121W EXTENDS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N120W TO 27N118W TO 20N125W...THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 17N140W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS BUT SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS. CURRENTLY SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT ARE COVERING THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 124W AND 135W WITH PEAK SEAS REACHING NEAR 10 FT. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL DECREASE...TO N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W BY SAT AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...HELPING MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS.

$$ AL

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