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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260348
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS A SHARP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN MEXICO PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GALE FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE BY SUNRISE WED. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING...DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW GALE SAT AFTERNOON. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 23-25 FT WITH NE SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT PROPAGATING WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM ITS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOURCE REGION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N110W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N110W TO 11N118W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 121W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1640 UTC SHOWS 20-30 KT N-NW WINDS N OF 23N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND RIDGING NOSING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU MORNING. SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED NIGHT.

A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION ARE CENTERED NEAR 34N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W.

FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE FAR NW CORNER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 140W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST WED. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL TO 12 FT WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 19N140W BY THU MORNING.

MIXED SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 24N112W TO 13N123W TO 07N140W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH THE ONLY REMAINING AREA OF SEAS 8-9 FT BECOMING CONFINED TO THE W CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ BY THU MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THU MORNING THROUGH THU EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT THU.

$$ MUNDELL

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