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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW POLO LOCATED AT 22.2N 114.4W OR ABOUT 290 MILES W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 1500 UTC SEP 22. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. POLO IS MOVING WSW OR 270 DEG AT 6 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SW. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ARE AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE LOW IS SURROUNDED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WED. THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N97W...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT TO NEAR 14N100W TUE...AND NEAR 13N103W WED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGHOUT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 90W-100W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W 1008 MB TO 7N120W...THEN FROM 19N115W TO 11N128W. ITCZ FROM 11N128W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 85W-87W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 104W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N107W SW TO 25N125W. ANOTHER WEAKER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N131W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH THE LOW PRES.

A WEAK COLD EXTENDS FROM 32N35W TO 26N140W. A FEW SHOWERS AREA ALONG THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N133W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO 15N120W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

$$ DGS

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