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AXPZ20 KNHC 050949
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N123W MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE LOW CENTER FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS IN A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS INDUCED BY A KELVIN WAVE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 131W AND 133W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. THE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD ALONG 118W/119W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ WAS ANALYZED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 06N102W AND 05N105W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N131W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N NORTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N127W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 08N TO 24N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W.

A 04/1532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW FLOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA JET...THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 95W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 4 TO 5 FT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N131W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH CENTER...TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N139W. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WEAKENING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NOTED AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT ARE DESCRIBED IN OTHER PARAGRAPHS. THE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

$$ MT

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