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AXPZ20 KNHC 252223 AAA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 136.2W AT 25/2100 MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N124W PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE W OR W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT.

AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N104W PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NW AT ABOUT 10-15 KT.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 114W FROM 10N TO 18N...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 06N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N104W 1008 MB TO 10N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N124W 1008 MB THROUGH T.S. GENEVIEVE TO 12N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH SPAWNING MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS WITH POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS REMAINS THE KEY DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N159W WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO 13N142W WHERE IT REACHES THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 30N131W TO 13N142W. DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON TROUGH TO OCCUR... FOCUSED ON THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1500 UTC SHOWS 20-25 KT WINDS TO 87W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. SEAS SHOULD REACH 8 FT WITH THIS PULSE. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND GENEVIEVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 132W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH GENEVIEVE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.

$$ MUNDELL

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