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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201002
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 UTC Fri Jan 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The intertropical convergence zone extends from 04N91W to
05N101W to 04N113W to 07N135W to 07N140W. No significant
convection.

...DISCUSSION...

...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of
unusually large swell will affect much of the area during the
coming week...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front crossing Baja California Norte extends from
31.5N114W to 28N117W. The front will sweep across the northern
Gulf of California and weaken today. Large northwest swell
associated with the front will push southeastward and arrive
along the west coast of Baja California today. Strong southwest
winds ahead of the front north of 29N over the Gulf of
California will diminish slightly today. A stronger cold front
will sweep eastward over Baja California Norte tonight,
accompanied by even stronger winds and higher seas. Large
northwest swell will cause seas to build to 14-22 ft in the Pacific
waters north of 25N through Sunday morning. Mariners can expect
hazardous marine conditions in both the near shore and coastal
waters. Very dangerous surf conditions will spread southward along
the entire Pacific coast of Baja California.

High pressure building in behind the front will support strong
northerly flow off the southern Gulf of California and off Cabo
Corrientes by late Sunday as the leading edge of the large NW
swell event reaches the coast near Manzanillo. Another front
will push into the waters off Baja California Norte by Monday
morning. This front will bring another round of strong northwest
winds and 12 to 18 ft northwest swell.

Farther south, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of
Mexico will prompt strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Sunday night and Monday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle southeast to east winds will generally prevail
across the region through Tuesday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft
in the forecast waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends eastward along 24N to the southern tip of the
Baja peninsula. The gradient between the ridge and low pressure
associated with the ITCZ is supporting a decreasing area of fresh
northeast trade winds west of 133W, with 8-10 ft seas. Moderate
to fresh trades are observed elsewhere from 07N to 20N west of
122W. Seas where fresh trades are present range between 7 and 8
ft in mixed NE and NW swell. Expect the trades to decrease in
areal coverage and shift westward through Saturday as the ridge
to the north weakens.

A second cold front is expected to quickly sweep southeastward
across the northern waters today and tonight. Wave model guidance
shows unusually large northwest swell propagating southeastward
into the waters north of 20N behind the second front, with seas
building to 16-22 ft north of 25N Saturday. Yet another cold
front will move into the far northwest waters on Saturday,
preceded and followed by strong to near gale force winds. NW
winds behind the front could reach gale force N of 28N and W of
130W on Sunday and Sunday night. This front will generate
another set of large northwest swell through the northwest
waters, with wave model guidance indicating seas in the 14-22 ft
range.

$$
cam

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