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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031638 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 03 2016

Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A very tight pressure gradient
across southern California and extreme northern Baja California
has induced minimal gale force winds over the northern portion
of the Gulf of California north of 29N this morning. Resultant
seas with these gale conditions are in the 8 to 11 ft range. The
gradient is forecast to relax some this afternoon allowing for
the gale winds to diminish to a fresh to strong northwest breeze
with seas lowering a little to around to 9 ft. These winds will
reach south to near 27N tonight with seas decreasing to 8 ft.
Fresh northwest flow is forecast to the north of 27N early on
Sunday, with winds then quickly diminishing on Sun and Sun night
with gentle flow forecast across the entire Gulf of California
on Mon.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...corrected

The Monsoon Trough axis extends northwest off the Pacific coast
of Colombia at 06N78W to 09N85W to 07N90W to 11N100W to 11N110W
to 09N118W to 08N125W. ITCZ axis extends from 09N125W to 09N133W
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm south of the axis between 103W and
105W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ west 138W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between
124W and 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See special features section for the Gulf of California.

Moderate to fresh north winds, with combined seas of 7 to 11 ft,
are currently observed across the Pacific waters west of the
Baja Peninsula, while moderate to west to northwest flow is
noted elsewhere west of 105W. The pressure gradient will
gradually relax over the next few days, with a gentle to
moderate n breeze expected by Monday, as seas subside to 5 to 8
ft in northwest swell.

A surface trough extends from 21N106W to 14N104W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 18N to 19N between 103W
and 105W.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong northerly surge is expected
to begin late Wed night, with guidance suggesting minimal gale
conditions developing late on Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal northeast
to east winds are expected to begin again late Tue night.

Light to gentle northerly winds are occurring elsewhere north of
the monsoon trough, while light to moderate southwest flow is
observed to the south of the monsoon trough. moderate to fresh
southerly breeze is forecast beyond 200 nm. Combined seas of 5
to 6 ft in the long-period southwest swell are noted within
this area.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1035 mb is north of the area at 36N136W
with a ridge extending southeastward to 32N132W to 24N125W to
near 18N118W. High pressure covers the area north of 17N west of
118W. The 1035 mb high center will remain nearly stationary
through Sunday, then weaken on Monday as the high center is
forced south as a mid-latitude low pressure and frontal system
west of the discussion area tracks in a north-northeastward
direction. Fresh north to northeast winds are expected northeast
of the ridge through early Sunday, then moderate flow is
forecast for Sunday night and Monday. Fresh to locally strong
northeast trades are expected to the southwest of the ridge
through Sunday, then moderate to locally fresh flow is expected
on Monday. Seas of 8 ft or greater in mixing southwest and
northwest swell are expected elsewhere north of the ITCZ west of
110W through Sunday, followed by a subsiding trend during the
the early part of next week.

$$
Aguirre

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