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AXPZ20 KNHC 281535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N82W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 04N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.


...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 135W AND 140W N OF 20N. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL PASS S OF 30N LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND FROM 30N118W TO 25N132W BY SUN MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BATCH OF 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N BY SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWS MAX N WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SURFACE OBS FROM SALINA CRUZ INDICATE WINDS HAVE DINISHED SINCE THEN AFTER PEAKING AT 25-30 KT AROUND 1800 UTC YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT TO MAX AT 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 11 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD... ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES WILL RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT... MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT.

$$ MUNDELL

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