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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272201
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

No well defined Monsoon Trough/ITCZ at present.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure has settled over the region, supporting
gentle to moderate breezes across the entire area. Seas are 1 to
3 ft over the Gulf of California and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere
offshore, except to 6 ft across the far northern waters. 1017 mb
high pressure centered near 21N121W will dissipate early tonight
ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the west. Strong
southwest to west winds are expected over the far northern Gulf
of California ahead of the cold front tonight into Tuesday. The
front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern
Gulf of California through late Tuesday, then become diffuse.
Northwest swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft
reaching the waters beyond 200 nm off Baja California Norte
Wednesday, then subsiding. Looking ahead, high pressure building
north of the area over the Great Basin will support strong
northwest winds down the length of the Gulf of California
Wednesday night into Friday.

Farther south, varying winds at 10 kt or less generally prevail
all the way to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is
expected through Tuesday. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep
through the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel
strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds
will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong gap winds developed across the Gulf of Papagayo region
last night through late this morning, but have diminished
modestly this afternoon. The gap winds will increase again
tonight to 20-25 kt, and then again each night through the
remainder of the week. The combined strong areas of gap winds
will allow seas of 8 ft downstream within 200 nm of the coast
each night. Fresh gap winds will also develop each night through
the Gulfs of Panama and Fonseca. Elsewhere, light to gentle
breezes will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N123W TO 20N135W. Winds and seas are
moderate near the front, but long period northwest swell of 8 to
10 ft was observed in earlier altimeter data well west of the
front, north of 27.55N and west of 134W. The front will continue
to move east reaching the coast of Baja California Norte
Tuesday. Farther south, a surface trough extends from 09N114W TO
03N116.5W TO 02.5N124W will continue to move west through the
next couple of days accompanied by a few clusters of showers and
thunderstorms, eventually reaching 120W to 125W by mid week
before dampening out. High pressure building north of the area
behind the cold front will allow northeast winds to increase
slightly across the region north of 05N and west of 120W by late
Tuesday. Along with the ongoing components of northwest swell
propagating into the region, seas will build to 8 to 10 ft over
much of the area by mid week.

$$
Stripling

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