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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180934
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05.5N93W TO 11N116W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate was noted from 06.5N to 10.5N between 121W and 139W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: A cold front extends from low pres near 30.5N112.5W across Sonora, Mexico to near 27.5N110W then SW across the Gulf of California and Baja California Sur to Cabo San Lazaro near 25N112W to near 24N118W. The low pressure will shift NE of the area today and drag the weakening front SE across south portions of the gulf before dissipating. Recent scatterometer data showed strong NWly winds N of 29.50N and W of 113.5W in the far N gulf. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less this afternoon. Elsewhere N of the front, winds are generally NW to N at 10-18 kt, and seas 2 to 5 ft. Moderate northerly winds are expected across much of the gulf through late Wednesday before the next front sweeps SSE into the area. This will bring about strengthening Nly winds once again over the northern gulf Thursday.

Slowly subsiding NW swell prevails off the coast of Baja California, with seas still 8 to 12 ft. Seas will continue to subside, and fall below 8 ft by Tuesday. A fresh pulse of NW swell will propagate into the waters off the coast of Baja California Norte Thursday behind the next front, with seas building to near 9 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will persist along the coast of Mexico outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week.

Active convection continues in a broad zone across the offshore waters of SW Mexico from the Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes areas SW to near 16N110W. An upper level trough that supported the front that has moved through the Gulf of California lingers across the region, with upper level jet energy enhancing this convection. Active weather will continue across this region through Tue before shifting SW and well offshore.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri, pulsing to around 25 kt late each night, where seas will build 7-8 ft. Fresh Nly winds over the Gulf of Panama tonight will diminish to 10-15 kt by this afternoon and then become strong again Mon night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Northerly swell continues to slowly subside over the area. Seas remain 12-13 ft over the northern waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 125W. High pressure across the NE Pacific will dominate the regional waters for the next few days with little change wind speeds. Seas across much of the region west of 110W will subside below 8 ft during the next couple of days as long period NW swell continue to decay.

$$ Stripling

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