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AXPZ20 KNHC 200942
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is near 16.0N 126.1W at 0900 UTC, moving W at 13 kt with estimated minimum central pressure of 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 124W and 128W. Kenneth is forecast to reach hurricane intensity later today. Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information.


..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W north of 09N, moving west at 15 kt. Minimal convection is noted near the wave axis.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N92W to 08N103W to 08N116W, where it loses identity. It resumes SW of TS Kenneth from 13N128W to 11N140W. Very active convection is noted near the coast of Costa Rica associated with a squall line, from 07N to 14N between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the trough axis between 93W and 98W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California through the middle of next week with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A surface ridge extending across the western waters will weaken Mon as a low drifts south from California waters, with a trough developing near 125W Mon night. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail through the middle of next week across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except for a fresh NW breeze each evening within 90 nm west of Baja California, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

Gulf of California... Light to gentle southerly flow will persist across most of the Gulf of California through early next week, except for moderate to fresh breezes around a low center that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh N drainage winds are forecast each night through Tue

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate nocturnal drainage is expected to continue through early next week.

Otherwise, light to gentle NE to E flow is expected N of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered near 41N137W extends a ridge southeast to near 22N113W. N swell generated by strong northerly winds west of a low drifting south off the California coast will build seas to 8-9 ft north of 27N between 125W-135W Mon and Tue. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W.

$$ Mundell

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