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AXPZ20 KNHC 272155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS NEAR 23.1N 125.0W 989 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 27 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 29 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SST'S AND INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THU. LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL GENERATED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS...AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG SWELL FROM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION THROUGH THU. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON MARIE...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N72W TO 11N96W TO 10N111W... WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED SE OF MARIE. TROUGH RESUMES S OF MARIE FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15N124W TO 12N128W TO BEYOND 10.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 124W AND 133W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 29N139W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. LOWELL IS STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOWELL. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD AND MOVE W OF THE AREA THU.

THE REMNANT LOW OF KARINA WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE PHOTOS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 15N124W WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. THERE IS A LIMITED AND DECREASING AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WITHIN 15 NM SW OF KARINA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO THU AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND MARIE.

MIXED SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM MARIE INTERACTING WITH SWELL THAT HAD BEEN GENERATED BY LOWELL AND KARINA. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 100W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$ STRIPLING

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