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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 108.2W AT 20/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 145 NM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 NM S- SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL PASS S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SAT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W ALONG 10N86W 10N95W 12N103W 13N125W TO 12N131W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 6N TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W- 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N- 12N BETWEEN 91W-97W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 105W-110W.


...DISCUSSION... BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COVER THE AREA W OF 115W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF 25N W OF 110W AND FROM 12N-25N W OF 118W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL HAS CROSSED THE EQUATOR AND WILL REACH THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO SAT.

$$ PAW

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