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AXPZ20 KNHC 281605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 129.1W 1007 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION...WITH VERY COLD TOPS...HAS INCREASED OVER AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT... AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N127W. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO ATTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTHEN NEAR 16.7N130.9W TONIGHT...AND AS IT REACHES NEAR 17.0N133.2W EARLY ON WED BEFORE IT WEAKENS BACK TO A DEPRESSION BY EARLY WED EVENING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS S TO 10N ALONG 86W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST S OF THE WAVE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 112W FROM 09N-17N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF WAVE FROM 10N TO 13N. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PORTION OF A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 07N117.5W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 136W FROM 10N-17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-15N.

BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N116.5W 1008 MB WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...MOVING W 15-20 KT. BANDS AND LINES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION...WITHIN 270 NM ACROSS THE NE AND 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. THIS LOW PRES AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N88W TO 08N99W TO 09N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 78W-81W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE THROUGH BETWEEN 81W-86W...WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-90W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-102W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W-111W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N132W TO NEAR 23N119W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 119W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL TROUGH SEEN ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO INDUCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO LET UP JUST ENOUGH BY WED AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE TROPICAL REGION IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 13N-19N W OF 133W. THESE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS WNW WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. PRESENT SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO HIGHER RANGES AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF CURRENT TROPICAL SYSTEM.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ADDED INGREDIENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW HAS HELPED TO SURGE THESE WINDS OUT TO THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 88W FROM 10N-11 INCLUDING THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MIXED NE AND SWELLS WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 9 FT AT THAT TIME FROM 08N- 11N BETWEEN 89W-93W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 10N89W. THIS SWELL AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK BY EARLY ON THU.

$$ AGUIRRE

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