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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N95W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W TO 10N112W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N112W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W 1009 MB TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 12N106W TO 10N109W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 11N104W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 129W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.


...DISCUSSION... A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 17N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N-27N W OF 120W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. BY MON NIGHT... EXPECT INCREASING SE WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SE TO S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT PARTICULARLY N OF 27N W OF 134W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH 30N140W BY TUE NIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N120W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N122W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND ASSOCIATED SEAS BY LATE TODAY. CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM S QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER.

A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SUN AND MON. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES RELATED TO THE TRADES KEEPING SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE TODAY... REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. THESE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT WITH THIS WIND EVENT BY LATE MON.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH WED. THIS EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY WED. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 24 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS... CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE.

$$ GR

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