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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45-60 KT ACROSS...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM...OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO ABOUT 25 FT. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTEND AS FAR S AS 07N BETWEEN 94- 101W...AND EXTEND AS FAR W AS 11N109W. THESE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THE N WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT... THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MON TO A GALE AGAIN MON NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WED.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W TO 06N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO 09N116W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N101W TO 14N112W...AND WITHIN 150 NM OF 11N115W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 KT NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT...THEN THE NOCTURNAL MAX WILL REACH 25 KT ONLY SAT THROUGH TUE NIGHTS.

GULF OF FONSECA...EXPECT NE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SAT.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 26N140W AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W. THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH THE MERGED FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 31N130W TO 25N133W EARLY SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY MON. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH E SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 15N123W TO 09N140W. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SHRINK TO NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 22N140W ON SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW WATERS SUN AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AND SEAS 8-12 FT. A NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 18 KT REACHING NEAR 30N140W LATE MON.

$$ NELSON

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