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AXPZ20 KNHC 251002
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jul 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Eastern Pacific region remains very active with three tropical cyclones along 15N at 0300 UTC: from east to west, Hurricane Hilary, Hurricane Irwin and Tropical Storm Greg.

Hurricane Hilary is centered near 15.3N 106.7W, moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975mb. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Hilary may become a major hurricane later today or tonight as it continues on a WNW track about 200 to 250 nm west of the Mexican coast for the next couple of days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4 WTPZ24 for more details.

Hurricane Irwin is centered near 15.5N 118.7W, moving WNW at 4 kt with a minimum central pressure of 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 105 nm of the center. Irwin will remain in relatively close proximity to Hilary the next several days, with little change in intensity. Model guidance indicates a complex binary interaction between the two hurricanes may occur. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5 WTPZ25 for more details.

Tropical Storm Greg is centered near 15.2N 135.7W, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm NW of the center. Greg is expected to remain a minimal tropical storm for the next 24 hours, then weaken to a tropical depression as it approaches 140W Wed. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2 WTPZ22 for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 96W north of 06N moving west at 15 kt. Convection associated with the wave is well east of the wave axis, along 95W to 96W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is analyzed east of the tropical cyclone activity from 08N78W to 10N96W. The ITCZ extends SW of TS Greg from 12N136W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is centered within 90 nm of 11N96W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California peninsula are expected to continue through mid-week, as high pressure remains centered N of the area. Seas will remain 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell through Wednesday. Gentle southerly flow will prevail in the Gulf of California, and moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf. Large southerly swell from Hilary may reach the waters west of Baja California Thursday and Friday.

Nocturnal fresh northerly winds are forecast over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tuesday through Thursday nights. Hilary is expected to impact the offshore waters beyond 200 nm off the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Tue, then pass south of the Revillagigedo Islands Wed as a major hurricane. Seas of at least 8 ft associated with Hilary are forecast to reach the waters between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes on Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Across the Gulf of Papagayo, expect fresh winds each night with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow through the week, occasionally building max seas to near 8 ft in a mix of east wind waves and long period southwest swell.

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the forecast zones the next several days. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell creating 5-7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the forecast waters through mid week. Another set of cross-equatorial long period SW swell of 6 to 9 ft will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Wednesday, and the coast of Central America on Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is located north of area with a ridge axis that extends across the forecast waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this system and the active zone of tropical cyclones between 14N and 20N will maintain fresh N to NE winds W of 125W through mid-week. By Thursday, cross equatorial SW swell of 8 to 9 ft will spread over the waters south of 10N and east of 110W, persisting into the weekend.

$$ Mundell

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