Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242121
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO 08N90W TO 06N100W TO 04N120W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 98W AND 112W.


...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 24N W OF 130W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W TO INCLUDE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 07N132W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 112W. FURTHER E...THE WESTERN PORTION OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 86W TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA E OF NICARAGUA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 35N153W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 09N TO 13N W OF 134W WITH SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SURROUNDS THIS AREA WITH 8-9 FT SEAS OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY 24 HOURS WITH THE AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE... SW...AND NW SWELL SPREADING EASTWARD TO 110W ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE N OF THE AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT NW SEAS AT 8-10 FT WHICH ARE FEEDING INTO THE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT AROUND FRI AFTERNOON...WITH A NEW SET OF NW SWELL ARRIVING SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND COVERING THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 132W BY SAT MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 8-10 FT COVERS THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S90W TO 10N110W TO 10N120W TO 00N134W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE N REACHING THE SW COAST OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL COVER THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM 15N120W TO 15N110W TO 10N97W TO 00N81W...EXCEPT WITHIN 240 NM NE OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI EVENING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING FRESH LEVELS IN PAPAGAYO DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$ FORMOSA

Home