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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE AREA ALONG 94W AND N OF 14N...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS AFTER 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 113W FROM 06N-16N 16N...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER BROAD NE TO SE FLOW OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN AN INVERTED V-SHAPE PATTERN FROM ABOUT 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 118W AS TYPICALLY SEEN WITH ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 10.5N TO 13N...AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 12.5N TO 15N. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CLOSED LOW CENTER WILL FORM ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N TODAY...AND TRACK IN A GENERAL WNW MOTION THROUGH TUE. EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION TO INCREASE ALONG THE WAVE AND NEAR FUTURE LOW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A RATHER SHORT MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09.5N85W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 08N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO 09N100W TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W. IT THEN RESUMES AT 09N115W AND DIPS TO THE SW TO 07N126W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W- 106W AND BETWEEN 109W-117W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-129W... AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER AN AREA FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 80W TO JUST INLAND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.


...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS... SW MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH JUST W OF THE NW PART OF THE AREA ARE ADVECTING OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO...CENTERED NEAR 14N144W...INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA TO THE N OF 13N AND W OF 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN JUST ALONG 140W FROM 14N TO 17N W OF 139W. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EXCEPT FOR A SUBSIDENT AREA SUPPORTING DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 129W.

AT THE SURFACE... A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 28N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW...AS INDICATED IN A RECENT WINDSAT PASS...WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS 15-20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY THROUGH THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY TIGHTENS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN TO 15-20 KT MON AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY ON TUE WITH THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXPANDING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE AS THE 20-25 KT DEVELOP...HOWEVER SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL PROPAGATE WSW FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 92W BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$ AGUIRRE

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