Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N130W...MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N129W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STEADILY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W/114W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126W/127W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN EVIDENT CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. IT IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N130W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY LOSE ITS DISTINCT DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N77W TO 07N81W TO 09N86W TO 07N92W TO 05N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 88W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W...AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 37N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 24N140W TO 25N130W BEYOND 29N115W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N140W 27N130W BEYOND 32N117W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N115W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N111W AND 19N104W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N110W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N127W...BEYOND 30N140W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FEET...AND PROPAGATING AS FAR TO THE WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF YESTERDAY...AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN DOWN AS THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N140W...AND THEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N148W. THE FAIRLY WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N129W.

$$ MT

Home