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AXPZ20 KNHC 302126
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ANDRES IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 116.3W AT 30/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER OF ANDRES WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NW AS A HURRICANE THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON...THEN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY THIS EVENING...SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. A BROAD AREA OF SWELL RELATED TO ANDRES WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/ FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 16N ALONG 102W. THE WAVE IS SLOWING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ANDRES. A WEAK LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW...BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE NW REACHING 12N104W BY SUN AND NEAR 13N104W BY MON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER BY MON.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED NEAR 06N92W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 12N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N118W TO 08N125W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N138W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE ANDRES WILL PASS ABOUT 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND TONIGHT. THE ISLAND COULD EXPERIENCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 12-14 FT. THE APPROACH OF ANDRES WILL WEAKEN AND DISPLACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME FOR THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 120W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY MON MORNING. MEANWHILE 15 TO 20 KT GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W BY SUN MORNING...AND FROM 30N140W TO 24N140W BY SUN EVENING WHILE WEAKENING.

$$ GR

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