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AXPZ20 KNHC 171528
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW A BRIEF GALE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE BASICALLY N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW GALE BY SAT EVENING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 08N84W TO 06N100W TO 04N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W.


...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 24N W OF 120W DRIFTING E. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ELSEWHERE W OF 110W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N130W TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 32N115W. A 70 TO 90 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 17N140W TO N BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 29N114W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W. EXPECT THE NW CORNER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE E REACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TRADEWIND FLOW TO RELAX SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 30N143W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE AREA BASICALLY FROM 05N TO 18N W OF 127W. ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. TRADEWIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 128W AND 140W. ELSEWHERE...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 8 FT SWELL ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W. MOREOVER...SOME 8 FT SOME CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS OVER FORECAST WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MORE SWELL...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 12N105W TO 12N100W TO 06N98W TO 06N102W TO 12N105W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LASTLY... THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 89W PRESENTLY HAS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING.

$$ FORMOSA

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