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AXPZ20 KNHC 042202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT THU. EXPECT SUDDEN INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC EARLY FRI MORNING... FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE....POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15-16 FT FRI MORNING ...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 18-20 FT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

WIND CONVERGENCE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TODAY AS PRIMARY CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. WEAK ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

LINGERING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 11N112W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA TO A BASE NEAR 17N125W. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N106W TO 13N118W.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES CENTERED NEAR 14N133W. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACHING 25 KT DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THU.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT IN NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDS W OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING LOCALLY TO 8 FT.

$$ COBB

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