Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N100W TO 09N111W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N111W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N118W TO 07N126W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W... AND FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 132W.


...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES SW TO OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THEN W-SW TO A BASE NEAR 23N120W. A RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 29N135W. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH A RELATED DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N. S OF 20N... THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH S-SW WINDS ALOFT E OF 120W WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W IS PROVIDING THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N139W TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N-24N W OF 125W. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N118W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N119W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING WEST AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND ASSOCIATED SEAS BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W...AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 09N121W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES RELATED TO THE TRADES. A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELLS HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROPAGATE SE COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO INITIATE TUESDAY MORNING REACHING POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THIS EVENT...CURRENT NWPS GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS INTO A RANGE OF 25 TO 30 FT WHILE WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE.

$$ HUFFMAN

Home