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AXPZ20 KNHC 010254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1005 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 15N102W REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW IS IN A REGION WHERE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF LOW FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE W-NW PARALLELING THE WEST- CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.


...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N81W TO 1005 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N102W TO 13N106W TO 12N134W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 12N134W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 91W AND 101W.


...DISCUSSION... GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 15N102W GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 20 KT...AS GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW AS A LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TRAIN...CURRENTLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 132W...PROPAGATES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST... REACHING THE CONTINENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

$$ HUFFMAN

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