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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310920
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BECOME SOUTHERLY. AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO SPANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. THE AREA OF HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 06N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 124W.


...DISCUSSION... 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 32N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 16N. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS W OF 130W N OF THE ITCZ. FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W OF 125W THROUGH EARLY SUN. AN STRONG OCCLUDED LOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR 45N155W WILL GENERATE HIGH SEAS THAT WILL APPROACH NW PART OF THE AREA BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT TO PUSH MUCH PAST 137W DURING THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE REGION.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH MAX DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE AND SHRINK EASTWARD AS WIND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND.

GULF OF PANAMA...PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR S AS 05N.

$$ MUNDELL

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