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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050245
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 22.7N 115.2W AT 0300 UTC SEP 5 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS REMOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 114W AND 116W. KEVIN CONTINUES A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR...LOWER SST AND A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. KEVIN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SATURDAY AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW SUN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10.5N105.5W IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM NW AND 30 NM SE SEMICIRCLES AND STRING WINDS WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N97W TO 10N105W TO 13N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 93W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY W OF LINE 30N135W TO 13N138W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL START TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 138W.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 28N118W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS GENERALLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$ AL

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