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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190248
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 130 NM S-SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 325 NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 105W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 104W-110W. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AND S OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AND SWELLS CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N79W ALONG 9N87W 8N92W 11N98W 11N111W TO 10N120W WHERE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 82W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 136W-139W.


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W. THIS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS T.S. POLO MOVES NW.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF 110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATE FRI REACHING THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO SE MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.

$$ PAW

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