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AXPZ20 KNHC 140912
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO THE EQUATOR AT
82W...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 05N90W TO 04N98W TO 08N110W TO
02N125W....WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
01N132W TO BEYOND 02N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 90W
TO 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT UPPER LOW OVER SE
NEVADA TO 30N120W TO 20N135W TO 18N150W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT SPILLING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A BROAD AND FLAT
EQUATORIAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ALONG 136W....WHILE A LARGE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS FROM COLOMBIA NW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THEN N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 85W. A
NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEPARATES THE TWO TROPICAL
RIDGES...EXTENDING 11N114W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR ALONG 105W.
DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC VERTICAL WIND SHEAR E TO 100W CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THIS MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK ACROSS FAR
NE PORTIONS...EXTENDING FROM 30N116W TO 27N124W TO 30N133W.
FRESH NWLY WINDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
OFFSHORE OF SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE FRONT E OF 124W...WHERE SEAS
HAVE BUILT TO 10 FT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND HIGHER TO THE
NORTH. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED JUST NW OF THE AREA
NEAR 31N142W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND TO THE S OF THE
FRONT...TO NEAR 20N105W. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE FRESH N-NW WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. S OF THE HIGH...FRESH TRADE WINDS
CURRENTLY PREVAIL FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 133W AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 122W AND 133W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE
SWELL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE NE WATERS THROUGH WED WHILE DISSIPATING...
WITH REINFORCING NW SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA OF
FRESH TRADES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
ENCOMPASSING THE WATERS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY WED EVENING. OTHERWISE...NW
SWELL YIELDING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF 110W.

E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC...WHILE THE EPAC
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS UNUSUALLY WELL ESTABLISHED HERE ACROSS
THE DEEP TROPICS. RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN A VERY WET AND UNSTABLE AREA BETWEEN
102W AND 112W...WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TRAPPED
BETWEEN MILD ELY TRADES AND THE PACIFIC RIDGE.

...GAP WINDS...
FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL
THROUGH THE PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 KT THROUGH WED EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT N TO NE WINDS IN AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH WED EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING





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