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AXPZ20 KNHC 040926
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SUDDENLY SURGE INTO THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA TONIGHT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT BY LATE THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11- 12 FT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE FRI MORNING...BUT THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN 1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THESE EVENTS COINCIDED WITH EL NINO CONDITIONS DURING THE PREVIOUS WINTER TIME.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07.5N97W TO 08N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N105W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 102W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 121W...AND WITHIN 135 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 129W.


...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 30N129W TO 25N130W TO 22N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WITH A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 11 FT PER THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA REACHING NEAR 29N124W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE THU. THE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD S AND E OVER THE NW WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES MAINLY FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 120W. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH FRI.

A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1008 MB HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. A CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA TONIGHT AND THU. S-SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF THE TROUGH AND N OF 29.5N AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

$$ GR

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