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AXPZ20 KNHC 282204
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN RANGE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALES INTO SOUTHEAST MEXICO...AND CONTINUES TO DRIVE STRONG NLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 13.5N THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED TO MINIMAL GALES THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... BEFORE DECREASING TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE LATE SUNDAY MORNING... THEN DECREASE TO 20-25 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WILL AID IN NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO PULSE TO 25-30 KT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING... AND TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD COVERING THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 103W BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS USUALLY NOT PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC DURING THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING MONTHS. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 06N78W TO 04.5N90W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 03N100W TO 04.5N120W TO 08N132W TO 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 07.5N TO 14N W OF 129W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WAS LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N134W THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N113W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 24N W OF 128W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON SUN AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS SE AND WEAKENS.

E OF 120W...WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE...AND VERY LIGHT E OF 90W...WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ITCZ IS AIDING IN MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THERE.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 125W...AND ARE REACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTLINES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE GENERATING VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES...AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THIS GAP WIND REGION BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY MON MORNING.

$$ STRIPLING

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