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AXPZ20 KNHC 260945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02-12N ALONG 91W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OF WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02-15N ALONG 102W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE...AND ELSEWHERE W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 02N118W. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND REACH NEAR 10N108W AT 1007 MB ON WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AROUND MID WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 09.5N116W AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE W QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY BY MID WEEK.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 12.5N132W. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WELL E OF THE LOW WITHIN 210 NM OF 12.5N127W. THE LOW CENTERS RACE OFF TO THE W DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THIS CURRENT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON WED. ASSOCIATED WINDS REMAIN AT 15- 20 KT. COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT WILL CONTINUE N OF THE LOW...PRIMARILY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SW SWELL.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 32N135W AND PROGRESSING NE WITH TIME WHILE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO BASE NEAR 19N131W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING FROM 32N136W TO 21N140W. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT HAS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT...SEAS OF 7-9 FT CONTINUE N OF 26N NEAR THE FRONT PRIMARILY DUE TO MIXED SW AND NW SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT LATE TODAY.

UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 17N114W AND NEAR 16N107W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO 10N130W AND A RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 12N93W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVES AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS NW TO BEYOND 32N124W WITH UPPER MOISTURE SPREADING E AND SE ACROSS THE RIDGE CREST AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA RIDGES WNW TO A CREST NEAR 10N87W AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE TROPICAL PORTION AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS SPREADING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 80-120W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENTLY ENE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT NOCTURNAL 15-20 KT PULSES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

$$ NELSON

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