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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021612
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF OF 90W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W-103W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 113W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

SERIES OF THREE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN 125W AND 138W ARE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM WAVE TO WAVE AND ARE PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESCRIBED BELOW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 05N98W TO 09N126W TO 10N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N138.5W TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03.5N TO 06.5N E OF 79W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 102W.


...DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS DEVELOPING ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...AND MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO EXTEND FROM THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 160W. STRONG WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 140W AS A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND REDUCING THE UPPER WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 118W AND 142W. THIS IS ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION... NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 22N124W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD N AND NE THROUGH SAT AS A TUTT LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 13N106W. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN 110W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO BECOME STRUNG OUT ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SLOW AND GRADUAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF ANY OF THESE LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

THE STRONG NE PACIFIC EXTENDING S INTO THE LOCAL AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N122W AND EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N111W. A MODEST PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF 17N AND W OF 110W...WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 130W. SEAS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT...EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT W OF 130W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA E OF 110W WITH THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...AND EXTEND N TO 15N OFF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ALSO PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WERE 20-25 KT THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED W TO 90W...WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ STRIPLING

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