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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022122
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2120 UTC Fri Dec 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong post-frontal high
pressure is supporting strong winds across the Gulf of California
to the north of 30N this afternoon, and this will gradually
increase to minimal gale force late tonight into early on
Saturday with seas building to 8 to 12 ft seas north of 29N.
These winds will persist through early Sat afternoon before
diminishing to near gale force Saturday evening. Seas will subside
to 8 to 10 ft late Saturday night. Expect the southern extent of
strong to near gale force winds to reach along 26N on Saturday. As
the high pressure weakens, the northwest winds will diminish to
fresh intensity to the north of 27N by early Sunday afternoon,
with seas lowering to 9 ft. The winds are then forecast to quickly
diminish to 10 to 15 kt on Sun night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 10N125W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ reaches further west to 11N132W
then to beyond 10N140W. No significant convection is observed.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front reaches from 31N113W in the northern Gulf of
California across Baja California Norte toward 27n120W. An 18 UTC
scatterometer indicated fresh to strong northwest winds following
the cold front. These winds will follow the front southward across
the area offshore of the the Baja California peninsula into early
Saturday along with 7 to 10 ft seas. Winds will diminish to 15 to
20 kt through Sunday with seas subsiding to 5 to 8 ft into early
next week.

A surface trough extends from 21N108W through a 1012 mb surface
low at 17N108W to 13N106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
east of the trough, near Cabo Corrientes. The low pressure will
dissipate through early Saturday, leaving the surface trough to
linger into early next week. This will have little to no impact on
winds and seas, but may serve as a the focus for pulses of
scattered showers and thunderstorms close the coast of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo tonight,
then diminish starting tomorrow morning into ealry next week.
Elsewhere light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 3
to 5 ft are elsewhere to the north of the monsoon trough, while
moderate to fresh southwest flow is noted to the south of the
monsoon trough, with combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in the long-period
southwest swell. Little change is forecast through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A nearly stationary strong 1035 mb high pressure system is north
of the area at 36N137W with a ridge extending southeastward to
32N134W through Clarion Island. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and troughing along southern California and northern Baja
California is producing strong north winds north of 20N and east
of 125W, and fresh to strong trade winds from 18N to 22N west of
130W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft persist from 10N to 20N west of 120W due
to a decaying older northwest swell. A new group of northerly
swell with seas 8 to 9 ft is pushing into the waters north of 22N
and west of 120W. Seas are reaching as high as 13 ft in the area
of strong winds north of 20N and east of 125W. The high pressure
north of the area will weaken through early next week, allowing
the coverage strong trade winds to contract accordingly. The
northerly swell with wave heights in excess of 8 ft will continue
to propagate into the area, eventually encompassing much of the
region north of 10N an west of 120W by late Sunday. This will
decay to below 8 ft through Monday across the region except for
north of 20N and east of 125W where fresh northerly winds will
persist and maintain seas of 8 to 10 ft.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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