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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291516
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N133.5W 1002 MB. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA STILL SHOWED AN AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE CENTER SO A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00 UTC SAT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY 18 UTC LATER TODAY. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NW REACHING 32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N95W TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N95W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75-150 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N104W TO 09N117W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N117W TO 12N128W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 16W.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES AT 1023 MB IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 32N123W TO 20N121W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. BETWEEN THE TWO...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW- N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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