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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 09N102W to 05N120W to 02N140W. No
significant convection observed.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Large long period NW swell associated with the cold front now
with tail end over NW Mexico will sweep east and southeast
through Wednesday night, affecting waters primarily west of the
Baja Peninsula with 8 to 16 ft seas. This traduces to hazardous
near-shore marine conditions and very dangerous surf along the
coastline, which will gradually improve during the next three
days. Otherwise, seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist west of 95W
through Thursday. Model guidance suggests a classic setup for
fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of California starting
Wednesday night continuing through the upcoming weekend. These
winds will expand across the entire Gulf of California and
increase to near gale to gale force winds beginning Friday
afternoon with seas building to 10 ft. Winds will be fresh to
strong over the Pacific waters to the west of Baja Saturday and
Sunday as gap winds bleed southwestward across the peninsula.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse through the Gulfs of
Papagayo, Fonseca and Panama Tuesday night through the weekend.
Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the
region through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and
5 ft until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to
arriving NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 31N141W
extends east-southeast to near 22N116W. The ridge is building
eastward behind a cold front with tail end over NW Mexico. Large
NW swell continue to spread SE across most of forecast waters
with 8 ft seas encompassing almost the entire basin outside the
Gulf of California and west of 95W. Another smaller but still
significant set of NW swell that was generated behind a cold
front that will remain NW of the discussion area will reach the
northwest part of the area Wednesday morning. The area of
reinforcing NW swell will then spread southeastward through
Friday night. Seas will peak around 18 ft near 20N134W on Friday
night. Forecast models remain in general agreement in developing
an area of low pressure over the western waters near 10N137W on
Thursday morning. As the low develops, a large accompanying area
of strong to near gale force winds will be possible from 12N to
26N W of 120W starting early Thursday morning. The low is
anticipated to begin weakening and turn toward the WNW late
Friday. The low will continue to weaken, which will allow the
area of fresh to strong winds to vanish by late Saturday.

$$
Ramos

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