Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080942
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 13.5N96W PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0320 UTC. WIND RETRIEVALS OF 30-45 KT WERE CAPTURED WITH SEAS WITHIN THIS ZONE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 17 FT. EXPECT THE STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG GALES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO MINIMAL GALES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS JUST DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 12-13 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT TO PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO AROUND 22 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST AT MODERATE TO STRONG GALES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT TO CREATE HIGH MIXED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH MIDWEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE DOWNWIND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND IS LENDING ITSELF TO ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TO 35 KT AND POSSIBLY 40 KT AT THE PEAK OF THE EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. BRIEF GALES ARE ALSO SUGGESTED BY COMPUTER MODELS EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. GALES ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 88W-110W THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 02N106W TO 04N121W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W.


...DISCUSSION... A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W TONIGHT...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MAX SEAS ARE NEAR 6-7 FT. EXPECT THESE N-NW WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND N OF 30N THROUGH LATE MON.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 14N GENERALLY BETWEEN 115W AND 130W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-11 FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT GENERALLY S OF 13N W OF 110W. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 30N140W WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0554 UTC INDICATING STRONG TO NEAR GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N W OF 137W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS ALSO IMPACTING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FT AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN FAR NW PORTION MON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ALONG 133W TUE.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-11 FT NEAR 06N81W ON MON. AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$ HUFFMAN

Home