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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091507
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S-SE ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PRESENTLY STORM FORCE AND WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW STORM FORCE LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 18-20 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT PRODUCING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO AREA DUE TO MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW PEAKING IN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PULSE EACH LATE NIGHT/ EARLY MORNING OTHERWISE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 90W- 110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 05N104W TO 04N120W TO 06N128W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W... AND FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 108W AND 132W.


...DISCUSSION... A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NW WINDS GENERALLY N OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. THE NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS RELATIVELY SMALL AREA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ITCZ REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS RANGING FROM 8 FT TO 13 FT AT THE NW CORNER NEAR 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A NEW FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CORNER ON THU WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS HOWEVER NW SWELL WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 FT.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N BETWEEN 78W-82W THROUGH MID- WEEK WITH MAX SEAS REACHING TO 9 FT.

$$ FORMOSA

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