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AXPZ20 KNHC 212145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 122.3W OR ABOUT 708 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 180 NM AND 300 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NW WHILE ACCELERATING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 136.7W OR ABOUT 1095 NM ESE OF HILO HAWAII OR ABOUT 1595 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING SSE OR 160 DEG AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRI AND A TURN TOWARD THE E AND NE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE WARNING....RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE LOW WHERE SEAS AREA LIKELY 8-12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 300 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N91W TO 10N100W. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW AT 10-15 KT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N97W TO 08N107W TO 10N113W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 110W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 40N144W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N119W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOWELL...AND IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL MOVES UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

AN AREA OF S-SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL REMAIN JUST S OF THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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