Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W OR ABOUT 150 MILES SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT AT 1500 UTC SEP 20. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB. POLO IS MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ARE AT 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

STRONG NE WIND SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE CENTER TO THE E OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OVER W SEMICIRCLE. POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N-24N...INCLUDING BOTH MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE GENERATION OF LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 13N99W THEN RESUMES AT 16N120W TO 12N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 80W-111W.




...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 30N134W TO 20N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVLE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N133W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 117W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N138W TO 15N128W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT.

$$ DGS

Home