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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021542
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 2 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 04N80W TO 04N91W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 08N127W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N116W TO 114N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 34N120W TO 18N132W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 30N113W TO 21N123W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CENTERED NEAR 22N134W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE. 1033 MB HIGH FAR N OF THE AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 19N W OF 127W.

THE COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES SE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W AT 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTPAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$ MUNDELL

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