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AXPZ20 KNHC 271504
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE MARIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 123.7W 980 MB AT 1500 UTC AUG 27 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO WITHIN 180 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 32 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE. LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE SWELL FROM MARIE IS NOW AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. MARIE WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NW OVER COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON MARIE...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N99W TO 12N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 29N138W WITH A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. LOWELL IS STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 10 TO 11 FT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOWELL. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD AND MOVE W OF THE AREA THU.

THE REMNANT LOW OF KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15N126W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM SE QUADRANT OF KARINA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND MARIE.

MIXED SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM MARIE INTERACTING WITH SWELL THAT HAD BEEN GENERATED BY LOWELL AND KARINA. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 105W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.

$$ AL

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