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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040234
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N108W TO 07N114W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N114W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 127W.


...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE OF 1015 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N130W EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N130W AND EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 25N140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT WITH A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 10 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING THU EVENING. THE NW SWELL WILL SPREAD S AND E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE SUBSIDING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FRESHEN TRADES BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-30 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THU MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY... THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN 1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY.

$$ AL

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