000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251012
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
....SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE AT 25/0900 IS NEAR 12.2N
134.4W. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE THAT ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N105W 07N102W...MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 111W/112W FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 08N78W...TO 08N86W...07N94W...
09N114W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N124W...TO 13N131W...AND FROM 13N136W BEYOND 12N140W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 03N77W TO 04N80W TO 06N86W TO THE
EAST OF 86W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 136W AND
140W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND
136W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 14N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N
TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.
...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 35N126W...TO A
29N132W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N135W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE TROUGH WITHIN 400 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 21N140W BEYOND 32N129W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N109W OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WESTERN NEW
MEXICO NEAR 35N108W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
THE U.S.A. FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 120W.
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 9 FEET DURING EACH PULSE.
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM AROUND 8 FEET
WITH EACH PULSE.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N134W TO 28N132W AND TO
22N127W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT
IS NEAR ...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT TRADE WINDS
FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 125W WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W
BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS IN 12 TO 18 HOURS.
$$
MT
