000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100946
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 10 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG
1043-44 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND
TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER
THIS MORNING...AND FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY LATE TONIGHT.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY. COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE.
WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE...40-45 KT TONIGHT.
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA RESULTING FROM THE COOL
DENSE AIR WILL ALLOW THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER CONDITIONS
REACHING JUST BELOW STORM FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE
PERSISTENT GAP WIND FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE A PLUME OF SHORT
PERIOD NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 110W
BY LATE THURSDAY.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 05N82W TO 08N98W WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO THE ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH 08N120W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 137W.
...DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OF 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA
NEAR 28N125W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE AREA
FROM THROUGH 24N130W TO 30N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 44N132W IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE FRONT WITH
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT
DECREASING THROUGH WED.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG 23N IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 132W AND FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
125W AND 132W. THE STRONG TRADES ARE ENHANCING CONVERGENCE INTO
THE ITCZ AND MAINTAINING THE AREA OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND
135W AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH TRADES DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KT BY WED EVENING.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER GAP FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
$$
COBB
