000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090919
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 09 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N103W
TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
...DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD APPROACHING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N127W. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES. A PAIR OF ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC AND
06 UTC INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W.
THE ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
MAY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER. A SHARP AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
OVER NW MEXICO IS ALLOWING A SURFACE TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA TODAY...JUST AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN BUILDS E TO SE INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE SONORAN DESERT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH THROUGH GAPS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH AS
THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS BARELY REACHING 8 FT OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...THE REMNANT OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A NEW
PUSH OF NW SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA. AN ALTIMETER SHOWED
SEAS TO ALMOST 13 FT NEAR 30N140W. THE NW SWELL WILL COVER THE
AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 13N140W BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO
05N140W BY LATE MON. A STALLING FRONT WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 30N130W TO 20N140W...ACCOMPANIED
BY FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW NEAR THE FRONT THAT WILL DIMINISH
BELOW 20 KT THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE FRONT BECOMES A REMNANT
TROUGH FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W TUE.
OTHER PACIFIC GULF AREAS...WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA...
PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW LATE
EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT.
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED PULSES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND
115W.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
