000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270318
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...
AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRI EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE ON SAT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W
ON SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEFLY SURGE TO GALE
FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY 20-25
KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING
BELOW 20 KT BY MON EVENING.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ
FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES WNW TO 08N115W...THEN DIPS SW TO
07N130W...THEN TURNS NW AN EMBEDDED TROUGH DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR 09N131W...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUE W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N112W TO
09N123W TO 12N128W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING W OF THE AREA NEAR 17N147W WITH ITS
CYCLONIC ENVELOP EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 08-
23N W OF 130W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE INTERMITTENTLY ENHANCED
WITHIN THIS AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM OVER COLOMBIA
ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A CREST NEAR 13N122W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE W PORTION OF THIS RIDGE...AND TO THE E OF
THE UPPER CYCLONE...IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS
CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N AND NE...CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 270
NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 13N105W. A SMALL AREA OF
EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR
LESS. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS MOST OF PACIFIC
WATERS W OF 130W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRI WITH
COMBINED SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS
TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11
FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118-130W EARLY
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRI AS
THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SAT.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME S-SW ON
FRI...INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON NIGHT
WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT ON MON NIGHT.
$$
NELSON
