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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300910
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 86W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 85W-87W.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-11N ALONG 119W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG FROM 8N-14N ALONG 132W SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N WITHIN 240 NM E OF WAVE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 6N83W TO 5N100W CONTINUES AT 6N107W TO 8N120W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W-126W.


...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N121W AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDSS W TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG THE SONORAN COAST OF NW MEXICO.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 107W. AN AREA OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM 12N TO 20N...OTHERWISE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-11 FT FROM E-NE WIND WAVES AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

$$ DGS

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