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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020403
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N85.5W TO 05N90W TO 06N114W TO 04N125W TO 06N134W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85.5W AND 96.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W.


...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ALONG 90W...AND IS ACTING TO BLOCK UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W N OF 05N...WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF S CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA TO 20N. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW U.S. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH 30N116W TO 21.5N130W TO 24N140W. ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING IN DEEP LAYERED SW FLOW CONTINUES TO YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM PRECIP STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 127W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. ACROSS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE...LOCATED NEAR 22.5N118W. AN ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE S THROUGH E OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BOTH DRAWING MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE N AND NE FROM THE TROPICS THERE...BUT ALSO ACTING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDING WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N123W TO 22N114W. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE AND REACHES FROM 29N113W TO 25N115W TO 21N118W MON AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO NEAR 24N133W. SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS TO PROMOTE THE N TO NE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FRESH NE TRADEWINDS TO THE S OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. THE HIGH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 130W THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE GAP WIND LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMIZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...DUE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED TO FAR N PORTIONS OF THIS GULF THIS EVENING...WITH S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS OCCURRING N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING W AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 14.5N95W AND WILL PULSE TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS RESPONDING AND BUILDING FROM 8 FT TO 11 FT BY EACH MORNING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GENERALLY CONTINUES ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF...WITH NOCTURNAL MAXES PULSING TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT. NE WINDS 15-25 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SPILL ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHTTIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.


.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$ STRIPLING

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