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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240301
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ILL-DEFINED. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N94W TO 05N110W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF 127W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 127W TO INCLUDE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 06N133W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ AND ENHANCING CONVECTION BETWEEN 108W AND 130W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 90W TO INCLUDE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N110W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED MOVE TO 37N151W AND LOOSEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS PRESENTLY FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 130W WITH NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF WINDS AND SWELL IS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PRESENTLY N OF 25N E OF 126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 17-18 SECONDS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADEWIND FLOW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS S OF OF LINE FROM 00N130W TO 02N120W TO 01N110W TO 3.4S102W. BASED ON WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE...THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 110W THU NIGHT...AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ EARLY ON FRI...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COAST.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 6 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$ FORMOSA

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