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AXPZ20 KNHC 232207
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The elongated area of low pressure along the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better organized today, and afternoon scatterometer data indicated a well defined circulation center with wind to around 30 kt. The low has been classified as Tropical Depression Eighteen-E, near 18.4N 105.3W 1005 MB at 2100 UTC moving an estimated NNW or 335 DEG at 4 KT. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen during the next two days, and become a tropical storm tonight near 18.8N105.5W. Seas will continue to grow to 8 ft and greater within 90 nm across the NE and 150 nm across the SW semicircles as this system moves NNW and just offshore of the Pacific coasts from Jalisco to Nayarit, and across portions of Las Tres Marias. Heavy rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides will also be possible along these coastal states extending well inland. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough stretches across most of the basin from northern Colombia near 09N73W TO 11.5N85W TO 15.5N102W, then resumes from near 15N110W to low pres near 12.5N127W 1010 MB to low pres near 13N138W 1010 MB to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found from 03.5N TO 15.5N between 78W AND 90W, from 10N TO 15N between 92W AND 115W, and from 08.5N TO 12.5N between 125W AND 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front extends from SW New Mexico SW across the central Gulf of California and Baja California to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro. High pressure building north of 25N behind the front will aid in freshening NW winds west of Baja California Norte through Sun. Elsewhere, expect increasing winds and seas near Tropical Depression Eighteen-E spreading northwestward from near Cabo Corrientes to the southern Gulf of California during the next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An active monsoon trough near the coast of Central America from Guatemala to Panama will remain the focus for active convection in coastal waters the next few days. Expect SW winds south of the trough remain moderate to fresh this weekend. Farther south, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will persist south of 05N through Monday. Long period SE swell from the Southern Hemisphere will maintain seas west of Ecuador and south of the Equator around 7 ft through Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell generated by strong winds north of the area is producing 7-8 ft seas N of 30N between 116W and 123W. Low pres near 13N138W will move west of the discussion area Sunday. High pres centered well N of the area and low pressure associated with the monsoon trough will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds W of 120W through Mon. Low pres passing north of the area will weaken the high, allowing trades to decrease later in the week.

$$ Stripling

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