Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252145
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SHARP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG AND E OF SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL IN EASTERN MEXICO. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE BY SUNRISE WED. STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING...DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE THU AFTERNOON...THEN BELOW GALE SAT AFTERNOON. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 23-25 FT WITH NE SWELL GREATER THAN 8 FT PROPAGATING WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM ITS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOURCE REGION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 08N104W TO 11N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N112W TO 08N129W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 102W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1640 UTC SHOWS 20-30 KT N-NW WINDS N OF 22N W OF 108W INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALSO W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH RIDGING NOSING DOWN IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF IS SPILLING OUT SOUTHWARD TO 22N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU MORNING. SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED NIGHT.

A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION ARE CENTERED NEAR 35N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W.

FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE FAR NW CORNER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING 140W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WHILE MOVING JUST SE OF 30N140W ON WED WITH VERY SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. ASSOCIATED NW SWELL TO 12 FT WILL COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 19N140W BY THU MORNING.

MIXED SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 26N112W TO 13N120W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH THE ONLY REMAINING AREA OF SEAS 8-9 FT BECOMING CONFINED TO THE W CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ BY THU MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THU MORNING THROUGH THU EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-11 FT THU.

$$ MUNDELL

Home