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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301526
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE... A LOW NEAR 11N119W IS AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS TO 17N118W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W TO 122W. CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE LOW PRES FROM THE SOUTH ARE GENERATING A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N101W TO 17N99W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED INLAND OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN TROUGH AXIS AND 106W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N118W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N119W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 9N90W 8N102W 9N113W TO1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N119W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N131W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 92W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 113W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N107W TO 16N116W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 138W AND 141W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N124W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N124W THROUGH THE LOW TO 23N124W. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SEAS REMAIN TO 8 FT N OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND BENEATH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N125W ALONG 23N123W TO 17N126W. DRY STABLE AIR IS W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE SHEAR...NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER...BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N131W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT HOWEVER WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A SURFACE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER THE SEAS REMAIN TO 8 FT NEAR THIS LOW AND WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

$$ PAW

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