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AXPZ20 KNHC 052201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL INDUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL COLD AIR THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT FORECAST TO PERSIST TO FRI EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM INTENSITY FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IN THE AREA THROUGH SUN MORNING. MAX SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 18-19 FT FRI MORNING...AND REACH A PEAK AROUND 20-21 FT BY LATE FRI.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 09N125W TO 10N133W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 120W WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS. EXPECT TRADES TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES AWAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP WIND EVENT STARTS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA SHORTLY AFTER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT STARTS. WIND AND SWELL FROM BOTH EVENTS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND MERGE IN AN AREA FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

THE GULF OF PANAMA AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW SHORT-LIVED BURSTS OF 20 KT WINDS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER BURST OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT.

$$ GR

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