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AXPZ20 KNHC 312143
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N90W TO 07N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 109W AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 126W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N132W SENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 18N114W AND ANOTHER SW THROUGH 24N140W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRIOR TO 1900 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVER W WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SEND A CUT OFF LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON. PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM IS SUPPLYING FUEL FOR THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA S OF 30N AS WELL AS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO N OF 20N PRIMARILY W OF THE SIERRA MADE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. RADARS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION IS MOST WIDESPREAD IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND ALONG ITS BORDER WITH MEXICO. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS S AND TURNS MORE POSITIVE TILT...THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND MAZATLAN INLAND TO N CENTRAL MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MON AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS SE RETURN FLOW BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF 8-10 FT COMBINED SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO SPANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF DRAINAGE FLOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MON MORNING. SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE AND SHRINK EASTWARD AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE 1520 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WERE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR S AS 03N BY EARLY SUN MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$ SCHAUER

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