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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 14N92W TO 10N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 30N1350W TO 28N140W. DOWNSTREAM SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N132W WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE E AT 29N124W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 24N121W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 105W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W.

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N133W WILL MOVE E AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N128W TO 24N140W SAT. LARGE SWELL TO 12 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA W OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO FRI RESULTING IN TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT.

$$ DGS

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