000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182116
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N108W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N108W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is ongoing from 07N to 14N between 116W and 130W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A cold front is analyzed from 29N115W to 22N130W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 24N115W to 17N127W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The
front is also bringing rough seas in long-period NW swell mainly
N of 28N. Fresh to strong SW winds are also ahead of the front in
the northern Gulf of California, with moderate seas. A weak
pressure gradient elsewhere support mainly light to gentle winds
with moderate seas in NW swell, except slight seas in the
remainder Gulf of California.
For the forecast, strong SW winds will prevail across the
northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front through
tonight. The cold front will move SE while gradually weakening,
and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by late Wed. Rough seas in the
wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. Otherwise, a new cold
front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore
waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to
the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sat.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 88W. Elsewhere across the Central America
offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to
moderate from the south, with slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient is forecast to
prevail. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of
Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected through Sat, with pulsing winds to 20 kt at
night. Moderate seas are forecast to develop with these winds.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front is analyzed from 29N115W to 22N130W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 24N115W to 17N127W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The
front is also bringing rough seas in long-period NW swell, which
are already affecting the waters N of 24N and E of 132W.
Elsewhere N of the ITCZ, a surface ridge prevails, being
anchored by a 1027 mb high center located near 31N138W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
present.
For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward through
early Wed, bringing fresh NW to N winds and rough seas in long
period NW swell. The swell will propagate across much of the
waters W of Baja before subsiding Thu. High pressure in the wake
of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas
in the westernmost trade wind zone Wed through Thu. The next cold
front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu
followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low
pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary
offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move
southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong
winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with the
low.
$$
ERA
