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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270320
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE AT PRESENT AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL 45-50 KT WINDS TO PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON... THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SAT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 22-23 FT...AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY THIS IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION AND APPROACH THE EQUATOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N96W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 10N108W TO 11N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUES N OF 27N WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT SUPPORTED BY A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THU THROUGH FRI. NW SWELL TO 12-13 FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS TODAY.

1024 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N120W TO 11N124W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-9 FT FROM 08N TO 17N W OF 120W.

$$ MUNDELL

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