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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N137W IS MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING AND A WIDE BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS IT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY THIS AFTERNOON.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W BETWEEN 07N-14N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. IT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS S OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 102W-106W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 06N101W TO 06N106W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N106W TO 07N112W TO 04N120W TO 05N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.


...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N130W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N...W OF 115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N137W IS PRODUCING AN REGION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS TO 10-11 FT NE OF THE LOW NEAR 16N136W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0250 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 87.3W. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 8 FT OR LESS BETWEEN 88W-92W DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AREA OF MAX WINDS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SWEEPING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST...COVERING SOUTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 95W-120W THROUGH WED..THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU AND FRI.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THU MORNING AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PASSES S OF THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS N OF 15N THU...DIMINISHING BRIEFLY IN THE EVENING...THEN PICKING UP AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 8-9 FT ON FRIDAY.

$$ MUNDELL

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