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AXPZ20 KNHC 301551
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING S INTO TROPICS INVOF 87W.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SE MEXICO EXTENDING S INTO TROPICS INVOF OF 98W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 12N INVOF 125W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N INVOF 135W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 04.5N98W TO 08N118W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO SPAN NORTH AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23.5N123W COVERS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...WITH A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO W COASTAL MEXICO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE W CENTERED ALONG 139W...WHILE WEAK AND ELONGATED RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE E OF THE CYCLONE...FROM A WEAK UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N101W E-SE TO COASTAL COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...W OF 110W...CONTINUES TO VENTILATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ THERE. ALSO...SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IS AIDING IN SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION MOVING FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 46N137W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S AND ACROSS THE LOCAL NW WATERS...THEN RIDGES SE TO NEAR 21N117W. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND TO THE W OF 123W...WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6-8 FT. EXCEPT FOR PERSISTENT GAP WINDS NEAR THE COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS BETWEEN NW COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA. GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE TO AT LEAST 25 KT AT NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES IN THE LEE OF LAKE NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. THESE 3 GAP WINDS ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MERGE INTO A BROAD AREA OF NE TO E TRADEWINDS EXTENDING FROM 10N TO 13N FROM THE COAST W TO 92W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS PEAKING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT 25 TO NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS FLUCTUATING FROM 7 TO 11 FT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MODESTLY THU.

$$ STRIPLING

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